The AI Bubble Isn't Where You Think It Is

The AI bubble lives in private startup valuations (OpenAI, Anthropic), not in already-discounted public AI stocks.

• Public AI stocks already discount risk: NVIDIA's P/E has fallen 48% in a year, Broadcom's 56%, SK Hynix's 49%, even as earnings rose and neocloud stocks like CoreWeave (-52%), Iren (-53%), and Cipher (-55%) got crushed.
• CoreWeave's debt mismatch: The neocloud borrowed $50 billion at a 9% interest rate while generating only a 1% return, per D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria, sending its CDS spreads to imply a 62% five-year default probability.

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