StoneX' Vincent Deluard: The S&P Is Hiding a Bear Market | #655

Deluard turns bearish on U.S. stocks on breadth and inflation signals, favoring bonds, yen, won, and UK equities over Europe.

• Breadth divergence flagged: Over 70% of U.S. stocks trade below their 200-day moving average even as the S&P hits all-time highs, with roughly a third showing negative beta to the index.
• Tax data signals stagflation: Deluard tracks real-time personal income tax collections as his preferred growth gauge; growth has slowed from 8-9% to ~5% this year, implying near-zero real income gains.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.