Why oil hasn’t ruined the global economy. With Rory Johnston

China's massive, undisclosed ~5.5m b/d import cut averted $200 oil, but refining capacity losses now pose the bigger lingering risk.

• China's demand swing was decisive: China cut crude imports by roughly 5.5m barrels a day (~45% of prewar levels) between pre-war and June/July, averting the $200 oil scenario many analysts feared.
• Hormuz volumes recovered, at a cost: Non-Iranian Middle East crude supply is back near prewar levels (Hormuz hit ~17m b/d in late September vs. 20m prewar), but shipping costs are near $30/barrel versus a normal $2-3.

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