Cameron Dawson: Americans Have Never Been This All-In on Stocks

Dawson argues AI CapEx is structurally diluting hyperscaler ROIC while households' record equity exposure amplifies downside risk if the trade cracks.

• AI CapEx dilutes ROIC: Dawson says hyperscalers' legacy ROIC has fallen from ~30% to mid-to-low 20s, while 'neocloud' returns may sit below their cost of capital.
• Defensive rotation underway: Banks are breaking down while insurance outperforms, which Dawson distinguishes from January 2025's broad 'left-behind' rally—calling this an explicit flight to safety.

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