On American Energy Strategy Post-Hormuz

Shale turned the US into a net oil exporter, but the Hormuz crisis showed strategic reserves and diesel export bans are weak substitutes for China-style demand destruction.

• Hormuz shock dwarfed stockpiles: Strait closure cut ~20 million b/d (20% of traded oil); IEA/US drew a record 400 million barrels, yet Kevin Book calls reserves "a bad replacement for flowing barrels."
• China's demand vanished: Beijing cut oil use 4-5 million b/d by halting SPR fills (45%) and slashing refinery runs/re-exports (45%), the largest voluntary demand response any nation has made, per Kelly Sims Gallagher.

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