PodcastForward GuidanceOctober 23, 2026
The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup
Oil's squeeze is now structural, not just geopolitical, and with SPRs drained there's no price-suppression tool left.
- SPR exhausted: U.S. strategic reserves hold just 70 days of demand — the lowest in over 20 years and roughly one-sixth to one-seventh China's buffer — removing the main tool to suppress oil prices.
- Brent-WTI gap at wartime highs: The spread, just $2-4/barrel pre-war, has widened to $13-14, implying global buyers pay a 10-15% premium versus U.S. benchmarks, partly on fears of a crude export ban expansion.
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