What will computer chips look like in 2045?

Equipment scarcity, not chip design, will cap AI compute growth to roughly 2x by 2030 versus the needed scale.

• Tool scarcity caps growth: Intel CTO Pushkar Ranade says the world's equipment base could roughly double leading-edge wafer output by 2030, not the 10x needed to match AI's historical 3x annual compute demand growth.
• EUV is the binding constraint: ASML makes fewer than 100 EUV machines a year (~$200M each), split among Intel, TSMC, and memory makers like SK Hynix, with no major capacity increase planned this decade.

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