Affirm: The Internet’s American Express - [Business Breakdowns, EP.249]

Affirm's transaction-level underwriting and merchant network effects make it structurally more like American Express than a subprime lender.

• Network, not just lender: Affirm processes $50B+ GMV, growing 30%+ annually, with ~50% US BNPL market share and gaining share even at scale.
• Transaction-level underwriting edge: Affirm underwrites each purchase individually using transformer-based AI models updated every 6-7 months, yielding better loss outcomes than card issuers like Synchrony despite a less-prime customer base (~50% prime vs. 75%).

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