Throwing Cold Water on the Blue Wave

Polling errors have historically favored Democrats in rural Midwestern states, so a "blue wave" may not reach Rust Belt districts despite national trends.

• House outlook steady: Olsen's model has Democrats winning 225-234 House seats; a 2-point national polling error would only shift it to 222-227.
• Lead vs. level matters: Olsen argues a Democrat polling at 48.5% with a 1.5-point lead is safer than one at 47% with a 2.5-point lead, since undecided voters in Trump+11-13 states skew Republican-leaning.

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