Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing Book Q4 update

UBS CIO sees a dovish Fed pause ahead and AI capex scaling to ~$1 trillion/year by 2028, not a late-cycle slowdown.

• Cycle view: UBS CIO sees economy six years past last recession, nominal GDP up 56% since 2019, a supply-driven cycle less sensitive to rates — not late-cycle despite narrow market leadership and elevated inflation.
• Fed path: UBS expects a pause in October, one more hike in December framed as a "dovish hike," then pause into 2026/27 — more dovish than market pricing of two more hikes.

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