#427 | A ELEIÇÃO ESTÁ POR UM FIO: O QUE PODE DECIDIR LULA X FLÁVIO?

Brazil's runoff is a statistical dead heat (50.4% vs 49.6%), with turnout models showing Flávio favored but margins thin enough for a surprise.

• Dead-heat race: Futura's latest poll (Oct 20) shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.4% vs Lula at 49.6% of valid votes, margin of error 2.2 points — a statistical tie down from a near 2-point gap after round one.
• Rejection, not enthusiasm, decides it: Orrico says neither candidate inspires; voters are picking 'the less bad' option, and Lula must close the gap in his own high rejection rate to have a real chance.

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