Carnegie Mellon's Miles Dieffenbach: Can Mega Funds Still Produce Venture Returns?

CMU's endowment chief argues mega-fund venture economics no longer pencil against a 4X net, Nasdaq-benchmarked return bar.

• Beta deteriorating: Dieffenbach says fund sizes and venture's asset base have grown 10-15X in 15 years, making historical returns a poor guide to future performance.
• 4X net underwriting bar: CMU benchmarks funds against the Nasdaq-100 (the Qs), which compounded 17-18% net since 1998 (~3.5-3.7X DPI over 10 years); a 2-and-20 fee on that return equals S&P 500 performance.

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