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PodcastThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastOctober 19, 2026

Brazilianization

Hochuli argues global politics is "Brazilianizing" — decaying middle classes, patrimonial institutions, and no credible left or right project, not just a Brazil story.

  • Lula's loss presages runoff defeat: Flavio Bolsonaro outpolled Lula in the first round (Oct 6 recording) despite low unemployment, near-record wages and reduced poverty under Lula.
  • Congress neutered the presidency: Bolsonaro's 2021 'secret budget' (~$50B) entrenched pork-barrel power in Congress, leaving 90-95% of spending mandatory and the executive with little room to govern.

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