WFE to the Moon (Still), Semicon West and OCP Insights

Semicap and data-center infrastructure are undergoing simultaneous, costly transitions whose sequencing and feasibility remain genuinely unresolved.

• TSMC doing own diligence: TSMC is now sending employees to physically inspect data-center construction sites to verify customer demand is real, a departure from past reliance on sell-side forecasts.
• Reticle limits pushed: TSMC is moving to larger reticle sizes (costing tens of billions in R&D/retrofitting) and converting N5 fabs to N3 to meet surging 3nm demand.

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