Which Businesses Will Survive AI? | Michael Dempsey

Dempsey bets most AI-adjacent SaaS and inference startups are subsidized underperformers that lose once growth normalizes and labs consolidate the stack.

• Lab risk dominates software: Dempsey says AI inference providers (Fireworks, Together, Modal, Fal) growing 6x YoY look strong only because the market itself grows 10x YoY — many are 'underperforming assets' masked by subsidized demand.
• Figma bull case: Despite founders telling him they've switched entirely to Claude Design, Dempsey is long Figma, betting usage-based pricing plus a design canvas moat let it compound even as AI steamrolls weaker SaaS.

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