Is the Neocloud Bubble Popping? What TSMC Q3 Tells Us

TSMC's AI-driven growth remains intact, but overleveraged neocloud operators like CoreWeave face a looming debt-fueled shakeout.

• TSMC crushes guidance: Q3 revenue of $46.7B beat the high end, with 66% gross margin and 58.7% operating margin driven by 7nm-and-below processes (~80% of wafer revenue).
• HPC now dominates: High-performance computing/data-center revenue rose 22% sequentially to ~68% of total sales, now guided to $60-64B for the year, fueled by a shift from chatbots to agentic AI.

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