David Rosenberg: The AI "Mania" Is More Extreme Than 1999

Rosenberg sees AI-concentrated markets and a one-trick-pony economy as more fragile than the 1999 dot-com peak, with 50%+ recession/bear-market odds for 2026.

• AI as a one-trick pony: Rosenberg says 2% GDP growth rests almost entirely on AI capex (+16.4% YoY) while the rest of capex is -0.7%, unlike the broad-based 5% growth of the late-1990s internet boom.
• Market breadth signals danger: The S&P 500 equal-weight RSI hit a 24-year low; new 52-week lows outnumbering highs near an all-time high has only occurred in July 1929, January 1973, and December 1999 — each preceded a market halving.

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