PodcastProf G MarketsOctober 16, 2026
Will The AI Boom End Like The Railroad Crash Of 1873? — ft. Liaquat Ahamed
Ahamed argues AI data-center overbuilding and debt financing mirror the 1873 railroad bust, with timing impossible to predict but risk building.
- Debt-financed overbuilding: Ahamed says the core risk mirrors 1873 — hyperscalers now finance data centers via debt (including opaque NVIDIA vendor financing) rather than pure earnings, as railroads once borrowed 75% of capital.
- Jay Cooke/OpenAI parallel: He compares a potential OpenAI financing failure to Jay Cooke's 1873 inability to complete Northern Pacific funding, which froze railroad construction within three months and triggered defaults by a quarter of U.S. railroad firms within a year.
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