Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal

Paulsen sees restrictive financial conditions, tech-spending extremes, and 20-year complacency setting up a correction, not a recession.

• Financial conditions restrictive: Paulsen's 8-indicator gauge (yields, yield curve, money supply, dollar, fiscal, oil, CPI, real wages) shows 6.5-7 of 8 measures restrictive on a 3-month basis, the worst quartile historically.
• Seasonal edge erodes: Nov-April periods following restrictive summers averaged only 3% annualized returns vs ~17-18% in non-restrictive periods since 1970, with downside scenarios of 10-18%.

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