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PodcastCarnegie Politika PodcastOctober 15, 2026

Is Europe Ready for a Hybrid War With Russia?

Russia's sabotage campaign against Europe is a deliberate, if risk-managed, strategy to sever Western support for Ukraine without triggering direct NATO conflict.

  • Escalation timeline: Sabotage attempts trace to 2014-15 (Czechia ammo depot, Bulgaria assassination attempt), surged late 2023-24 via Telegram-recruited amateurs, dropped after US warnings, then resurged in 2025-26 with more refined targeting (Leipzig cargo plane plot, Estonia fire, assassination plots against defense executives).
  • Strategic rationale, not random: Nathaniel Reynolds argues Putin seeks revenge for Western-enabled Ukrainian deep strikes and wants to convince Europe that backing Ukraine is too costly, while avoiding direct NATO conflict.

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