Way On Base

Democrats' House majority looks locked in, and Republican Senate seats are increasingly at risk as Trump's approval sits below 40%.

• Generic ballot blowout: Democrats hold a historically large congressional lead, projecting a gain of 25-32 House seats per Olsen's model — enough to guarantee control.
• Trump's base-only travel: Despite visiting marginal states (Ohio, Arizona, Montana), Trump rallied in heavily Republican enclaves (Wasilla, Mojave County, Kalispell) rather than swing districts, signaling a defensive turnout strategy.

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