Housing Market in Crisis: Nick Gerli Warns the Worst Is Yet to Come

Housing demand has hit 40-year lows and multifamily delinquencies already exceed 2008 levels, even though single-family mortgage quality remains healthier.

• Demand at 40-year low: U.S. home sales fell below 4 million annualized in August 2026 (2009-era levels); adjusted for housing stock size, buyer demand is the lowest in 40 years.
• Sun Belt bust, Northeast boom: Austin prices are down 27% from peak (Vegas sales down 40% in five years), while New Jersey and Philly suburbs are up 7-8% YoY on inventory shortages.

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