What to Expect From the UK Budget

UK fiscal consolidation and growth have outperformed expectations, yet market sentiment remains more pessimistic than Morgan Stanley's data-driven view warrants.

• Low-key budget expected: Morgan Stanley forecasts around £10 billion in measures, far more modest than the October 2024 and November 2025 budgets.
• Fiscal consolidation ahead of peers: UK primary deficit is seen at just under 1% of GDP in FY26-27 versus IMF estimates of 2.9% for France and 4.9% for the US.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.