Wednesday - October 14, 2026

Hotter core CPI (2.6% YoY) points to a small ~3-hike "mini" rate cycle, with early credit-market cracks already appearing in neocloud bonds and CCC spreads.

• Hotter CPI: September headline CPI rose 0.6% (in line) but core CPI came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, with core YoY at 2.6% vs prior 2.5%.
• Broad-based pressure: Beyond energy, airfares, transportation, and owner-equivalent rent/shelter costs (about a third of CPI) all ticked higher, suggesting shelter may be bottoming.

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