Inside CBAM's first year: what traders, importers and policymakers learned

CBAM has already repriced steel and fertilizer trade flows, with a harder cash-flow crunch looming in 2027 as certificate-buying rules bite.

• Steel premiums spike: CBAM default-value premiums on hot rolled coil now range €170–€770/ton versus a pre-CBAM traded price of €400–€600/ton, eroding import cost advantages.
• Front-loading before the deadline: Q4 2025 saw a 40% surge in EU steel imports (avoiding ~€140m in CBAM costs) and a 150% jump in fertilizer imports versus Q4 2023.

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