PodcastThe Jacob Shapiro PodcastOctober 12, 2026
The Next Yugoslavia?
Ethiopia's reignited 2026 war risks spilling into Red Sea shipping lanes if Abiy Ahmed pushes to seize Eritrean ports.
- New Tigray war: Fighting reignited in Ethiopia in September 2026, now pitting Tigray and Eritrea loosely against the federal government, a reversal from 2020-2022 when Eritrea fought alongside Addis Ababa against Tigray.
- Development model shift: Abiy Ahmed's government moved in 2024 from financial-repression-funded state development (forced civil-servant savings built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) toward an IMF deal opening banking and telecom to foreign capital.
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