PodcastPower LunchOctober 12, 2026
Power Lunch 10/12/26
Despite a four-year bull market, S&P earnings growth and AI dominance are so concentrated that NVIDIA and Micron alone drive a third of 2026 forecasts.
- Red Sea/Gulf risk repricing: RBC's Halima Croft says paper oil prices (~$90-95) understate true delivered cost once $35-40/barrel shipping premiums (e.g., $76-77M charters Houston-to-China/South Korea) and war-risk insurance are added after Houthi strikes killed 14 at Riyadh airport.
- AI earnings concentration risk: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders notes NVIDIA and Micron alone drive ~33% of the S&P's ~35% expected 2026 earnings growth, with 10 companies (mostly tech) accounting for two-thirds.
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