Talk Your Book: Will AI Debt Cause a Recession?

JPMorgan's Bill Eigen says trillions in hyperscaler debt and off-balance-sheet AI obligations now make a recession likely.

• Cash still wins: Bill Eigen says cash has outperformed nearly every Morningstar fixed-income category over five years; only high-yield barely beat it, and his JSOSX fund has never had a negative calendar year since 2008.
• Spreads mispriced for risk: High-yield spreads sit near record tights (96% percentile tight vs. two decades) even as CCC spreads blew from 600 to 1,200 over treasuries, signaling the credit cycle's "first warning signal."

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