Minimum Viable Superintelligence Is 5 to 10 Years Away | Steve Newman

AI elites at The Curve conference now treat AGI/recursive self-improvement as imminent, with transformational superintelligence estimated 5-10 years away.

• Minimum Viable Superintelligence: Helen Toner's Curve talk argued AGI/superintelligence labels are now too fuzzy to be useful, estimating a transformational "minimum viable" threshold is 5-10 years away.
• Vibe shift toward imminence: Unlike 2024's "hypothetical future" framing, 2025 attendees increasingly treated AGI as imminent, debating readiness rather than whether it would happen.

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