The Lab Data Proves the Intelligence Explosion Is a Myth | Ramez Naam

Naam's analysis of lab data finds the AI self-improvement feedback loop 5-10x too weak to trigger runaway "intelligence explosion" growth.

• Feedback loop too weak: Naam estimates the current AI self-improvement loop is 5-10x too weak to sustain a 'Foom'/intelligence explosion, even without humans in the loop.
• System card evidence: Anthropic's own data shows AI improving researcher productivity only ~4x, while a 40x lift would be needed to double AI progress's pace; OpenAI reports 124x more tokens/researcher yielding just 7x more code and 1.6x more experiments.

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