UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Worrying about the cost of war'

Trump's no-attack-on-Iran pledge reflects political cost concerns before midterms, but constraints may ease and reverse afterward.

• Trump's Iran pledge: Social media post declares no US attack on Iran before midterms, briefly reviving market optimism and pushing oil prices down.
• Political cover, not policy: Donovan says the post may reflect concern over war's political cost, but constraints could ease after midterms, so any moderation may not last.

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