This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road, with Jurrien Timmer

Timmer sees AI-driven earnings outrunning valuations, so the real risk is rate-driven, not a 1999-style bubble—yet.

• Debt sustainability watch: National debt up $17T since COVID with no non-economic buyers (central banks selling); 10-year nominal yield 5.3%, real yield ~2.9%, term premium 90bps.
• Reverse crowding out: Hyperscalers are borrowing $500B this year and a projected $500B more in 2026 (14% of net new Treasury borrowing); corporate bond+equity issuance totals ~$3.6T over twelve months.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.