The Alt(man)ernative Narratives

Siegel raised his long-term equity return forecast even as rates rise, citing growth optimism over valuation concerns.

• Siegel raises return targets: Siegel bumped his long-term real equity return estimate to 5.5%-6.5% from the P/E-implied 5.5%, citing higher real rates signaling growth expectations.
• Fed path and oil risk: Siegel expects a Fed hold in October, cut in December; a 25bp hike isn't ruled out if oil stays elevated and crowds out non-tech borrowing.

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