Califoreboding

AI's market dominance, private credit stress, and the 2030 US fiscal crossover are underappreciated risks beneath record-high equity indices.

• AI concentration: Since Jan 2024, 42 AI-related stocks (under 10% of the S&P 500) have driven 60-80% of index earnings growth, returns, and capex.
• Hidden market breadth weakness: 60% of S&P 500 stocks trade more than 20% below all-time highs, and only ~30% have outperformed the index over three years — among the lowest since the early 1990s.

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