Top of the Morning: State of the US economy & Fed outlook

UBS CIO expects the Fed to pause in late October, then hike once more in December as inflation stays near 3% and labor cools gradually.

• September jobs report solid, not hot: Nonfarm payrolls grew ~29,000 (vs. consensus, ~60,000 below expectation), but the three-month trend sits near 50,000 — break-even pace that keeps unemployment stable.
• Wage growth cooling: Wage growth slowed to around 3%, signaling no labor-driven inflation pressure but also less income support for consumer spending into Q4.

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