Tech’s Record Rally, Assessing Amazon’s Valuation, Global Energy Uncertainty 10/7/26

Rising long-end yields, shipping-cost-driven oil inflation, and AI capex are colliding to create new, underappreciated sources of market fragility.

• Rates driving the market: Fed minutes show most officials favor another 2026 hike; 2-year yield (4.76%) sits ~100bp over fed funds, which Jim Carson (Kai Wealth) says signals a bond-market 'buyer strike' and rising CDS risk premia, warning yields are ~20bp from a break point.
• Tech bull turns cautious but not bearish: Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston closed his bullish tech call after a sharp August–October rally, but still expects a post-midterm rally (19-for-19 since 1950, avg +14% over six months) regardless of election outcome.

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