#421 | LULA X FLÁVIO: O VENCEDOR VAI CONSEGUIR GOVERNAR?

The election's biggest market consequence is which side fills four STF Supreme Court seats, not who wins the presidency.

• Senate swing dominates: PL jumped from roughly 14 to 28 senators (nearly doubling), the largest party gain in post-dictatorship Brazilian Senate history; with União and PP, center-right holds over 41 of 81 seats.
• Flávio leads by ~2.3 million votes: of 33 million abstentions, Lula can only win by pulling votes directly from Flávio since third-way and abstaining voters skew right; Pacífico calls this the only realistic Lula path.

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