Can AI Keep Growing Exponentially? Let’s Ask SemiAnalysis — With Dylan Patel and Jordan Nanos

Patel and Nanos argue AI revenue is on track to catch up with the buildout, citing Anthropic's roughly 75% inference gross margins and the NVIDIA backstops that let neoclouds raise financing.

• Buildout dwarfs history: Dylan Patel says US AI CapEx next year will hit ~$2 trillion against ~$30T GDP, putting it at 5-6% of GDP—higher than widely-cited railroad comparisons because US CapEx also serves foreign inference demand.
• Growth decelerates but revenue catches up: Kantrowitz notes consensus has hyperscaler capex growth falling from 116% in Q3 to about 70% by Q1; Patel calls the slowdown definitional and points to Anthropic growing about 10x this year, from under $10B of revenue to north of $100B.

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