The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)

Record tanker rates from the Iran war are unsustainable near-term, but dry bulk, led by China's Guinea iron-ore shift, offers a more durable multi-year opportunity.

• Spot rates at 25x normal: Middle East Gulf-to-China VLCC voyages hit ~$1-1.2M/day (vs. normal $20-40k/day); one-year charter rates are ~$150-170k/day vs. normal $25-30k.
• Ton-miles, not ships, are the commodity: Rerouting (Russia-to-India around Africa, U.S./Brazil long-haul exports) and Strait of Hormuz disruption inflate demand by forcing inefficient routes.

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