Harley Bassman, The Convexity Maven

Bassman argues rising long-end yields reflect a fiscal/trust crisis and hyperscaler debt competition, not inflation, with equities propped up by passive flows until unemployment rises.

• Fiscal, not inflation, story: Bassman calls long-end yield rise '95% fiscal,' citing $5T income vs $7T expenses and interest hitting $1.1-1.2T, potentially $2T once old low-coupon debt rolls off at ~5% on $40T.
• Hyperscaler borrowing adds pressure: AI hyperscalers are issuing roughly $750B of new debt (vs ~$2T in new Treasury issuance), totally price-insensitive, pushing the whole rates complex higher.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.