Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Wash, rinse, repeat

UBS expects yields to drift only modestly lower as resilient ~6% nominal U.S. growth repeats a 2023-style pattern of defying rate-cut expectations.

• Benign data, higher yields: August core PCE rose <25bp m/m with the annual revision cutting y/y core inflation to 3% (vs 3.4% consensus), yet the 10-year yield rose 11bp and 30-year rose 13bp last week.
• Jobs soften, growth revised up: September payrolls added just 29K (vs 90K expected, 3-month avg 51K) and unemployment ticked to 4.2%, while Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% (private domestic final purchases at 4.6%).

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