Signal over Noise: The 1999 analogue through the fixed income lens

Unlike 1999's surplus-driven duration scarcity, today's deficit-fueled bond supply keeps term premia elevated even as rate-hike odds fade.

• Yields echo 1999: The 10-year Treasury hit 5.34% recently (highest since 2002), mirroring the 10-year's climb to ~5.8% near the dot-com peak.
• Inflation backdrop differs: Core CPI is 2.4% now vs 1.9% in 1999, and core PCE sits at 3%, versus lower inflation Greenspan faced before his 1999-2001 hikes.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.