5% Rates, Bessent's Failed Gamble & What Comes Next w/ Krishna Guha | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 78

Guha says rising long-term yields reflect AI-driven debt competition and a Fed that's deliberately stopped guiding markets, not just inflation fears.

• 10-year surge explained: Since July the 10-year moved from about 4.5% to around 5.25% as they recorded, which Guha ties to AI hyperscaler debt issuance crowding out Treasuries, a 6%-of-GDP federal deficit, war-driven oil (diesel at all-time highs), and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's removal of forward guidance.
• Warsh's agenda: New Fed Chair Warsh, a supply-sider skeptical of New Keynesian orthodoxy, wants QE confined to true emergencies, aims to shrink a balance sheet Eisman puts at roughly $6.5-7T (down from about $9T at the peak), and has scrapped forward guidance, which Guha says has let rate markets overshoot.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.