PodcastForward GuidanceOctober 4, 2026
America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup
U.S. growth and markets now hinge almost entirely on AI hyperscaler capex while housing, Main Street, and Europe deteriorate structurally.
- Term premium isn't the driver: Aidan Garrib's ACM model shows 10-year yields rising because markets price a higher Fed terminal rate, not fiscal fear or inflation expectations (steady near 2.4%).
- AI is the entire economy: Hyperscaler AI capex grew over 90% YoY and is nearly the sole driver of ~6.6% nominal GDP; forecast to decelerate to 30-35% in 2026.
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