Why the Midterms Suddenly Look So Bad for Republicans

Nate Silver's model shows Democrats favored to flip the Senate as Trump's approval collapses over Iran, gas prices, and AI anxiety.

• Senate odds flipped: Kalshi now gives Democrats over 60% to win the Senate, versus Republicans at 80% to hold it as of early 2025.
• National swing is historic but typical: Nate Silver's Flipper model projects Democrats winning the House popular vote by ~8 points, a 10-11 point swing from 2024 roughly matching the average midterm swing of 7.5 points.

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