MacroVoices #552 David Rosenberg: Navigating The Noise

Rosenberg bets inflation fears are overdone since wages aren't rising, making current yield spikes a Fed-driven, reversible phenomenon.

• Tariffs didn't cause sustained inflation: Core goods CPI fell from 1.5% to below 0.7% (a four-year low) a year after the largest tariff hike since the 1930s, per Rosenberg.
• Wages are the key transmission mechanism: Rosenberg says 2021-23 inflation was sustained only because prices fed into wages via a hot labor market; today nominal wage growth is decelerating, so energy/tariff shocks act like a 'tax increase,' not durable inflation.

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