ERCOT batteries: boom, bust, or rebound?

ERCOT battery revenues crashed 84% on overbuild, with a volatility rebound tied to data center load not expected until 2029-2030.

• Revenue collapse: ERCOT battery revenue fell from ~$200/kW installed in 2023 to ~$30/kW in the past 12 months, well below the ~$100/kW breakeven for a 2-hour system.
• Scale exploded: Texas battery capacity grew from ~200MW in 2020 to 17-18GW approved (20GW+ built) by 2026, with six GW added in 2024 alone.

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