All About Exit Polls

Olsen's models now favor Democrats to retake both House (225-232 seats) and Senate, with 95% of the midterm outcome already "baked in."

• Generic ballot blowout: Democrats lead the congressional generic ballot by 8.3 points, and Olsen's new seat-projection model (validated against 2014, 2018, 2022) pegs House outcomes at D+225 to D+232 seats.
• Senate flips to Democratic favorite: Olsen's Margin of Victory newsletter now forecasts Democrats as favorites to take the Senate, range D+4 to D+7, a first this cycle.

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