Knock on Wood

Marathon sees US timberland and lumber as twin capital cycles near trough, with Rayonier and Weyerhaeuser priced near bare-land value.

• Two nested capital cycles: Lumber (short cycle, near multi-year low) and Timberland (long cycle, ~25-40 year rotations) are both said to be near trough valuations.
• Lumber supply has shrunk: North American lumber production fell for four straight years to near 10-year lows, down 1.6%/yr for two decades, with 6.5bn board feet removed since the pandemic peak of 62bn.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.