Will Higher Rates Kill the Stock Market? (EP. 484)

Rapidly rising rates give stocks a clear excuse to sell off, but broad wealth effects and AI-driven spending shifts are offsetting it — for now.

• Multiple compression is broad: Duality Research shows 11 of 12 sectors saw multiple contraction in 2025-26, not just tech; only consumer staples (+<1%) expanded, while an 81-stock AI CapEx basket trades at 15x EV/EBITDA, just 1.14x its pre-2026 average.
• Doubt without fear: 70%+ of S&P stocks sit 10%+ below highs even as the index holds near all-time highs, VIX is 16, and defensive sectors (staples, utilities) are at multi-year relative lows versus the S&P — a setup Ben Carlson compares to just before the dot-com peak.

Themes, sentiment and reasons are AI-written paraphrases, checked so they never quote an episode. They may contain errors. Not investment advice. Episodes remain the property of their creators.